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LURKING JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF CURRENT LONG TERM IS TRANSITION TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR... AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX DIVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO DISLODGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR SENDING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY MON JAN 21ST /MARTIN
LUTHER KING DAY/. 00Z GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR WITH GFS ADVERTISING 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C ON MON WHILE
ECMWF EVEN MORE BRUTAL AT -30C TO -33C BY 00Z TUE. REGARDLESS...
UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY CHANGES WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTREMELY
COLD PERIOD AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEK OF JAN 21-25TH... WITH THE
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS GENERALLY EQUATING TO WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING COLD. IF MEMORY SERVES CORRECT THE LAST
TIME WE`VE SEEN ANYTHING AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS WAS JAN `09
WHEN THE MORNING OF JAN 16TH SEVERAL SITES TIED OR BROKE ALL TIME
JAN RECORD LOWS... WITH LOWS THAT MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND -30F IN
SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT THE 12Z/16TH 850 MB TEMPS THEY WERE AROUND
-20C OR A LITTLE COLDER. THE KEY WAS MUCH OF THE REGION WAS SITTING
ON 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COVER AFTER A COUPLE OF HEAVY SNOW EVENTS
JUST DAYS APART AND WITHIN A WEEK PRIOR TO THE 16TH. SO... UNLESS
SOMETHING DRAMATICALLY AND TERRIBLY UNFORESEEN OCCURS WITHOUT THE DEEP
SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEEING ANY RECORD COLD POTENTIAL... THAT
IS... UNLESS THE HI-RES ECMWF WERE TO MAINTAIN 850 MB TEMPS OF -30C
TO -33C INTO TUE MORNING. THESE 850 MB TEMPS FROM ECMWF IN JUST THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK SFC RIDGING... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WOULD SUPPORT LOWS NEAR TO ROUGHLY 3 DEGS BELOW THE PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS... OR GENERALLY NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS OF AROUND -20F TO -27F.
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/big2_cond/language/www/US/IA/Fairfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 13/01/2013 12:51 pm
it will interesting to see how today's forecast's for that cold period will really pan-out.
Here's my forcast.............not bad......yet.
<a href="http://www.wunderground.com/US/MA/Seekonk.html?bannertypeclick=bigwx"><img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/bigwx_both_cond/language/www/US/MA/Seekonk.gif" alt="Click for Seekonk, Massachusetts Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 13/01/2013 1:42 pm
Topic starter
For sure-but it is just beyond the scope of the current forecast....
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/big2_cond/language/www/US/IA/Fairfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 13/01/2013 1:57 pm
I'm following that one too, Jim. I *try* to be in the tropics for the coldest weather each winter but might have failed. Again. 😆
Posted : 13/01/2013 2:14 pm
Topic starter
Are you back yet???
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/big2_cond/language/www/US/IA/Fairfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 13/01/2013 2:35 pm
'fraid so. Got home late Tuesday night. 🙁
Posted : 13/01/2013 2:49 pm
Topic starter
We know who to blame now.....LOL
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/big2_cond/language/www/US/IA/Fairfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 13/01/2013 4:53 pm
Hey, I got credit for bringing rain to OK (we're still in a drought, but the recent rain helped).
But might lose points for the rain being the freezing sort, as seen in this photo I took today (self portrait in frozen rain drop)
<a href=" http://www.flickr.com/photos/drterdal/8378785086/" title="TINY ice bead reflection of Erik under maple leaf bud by drterdal, on Flickr"><img src=" 
" width="279" height="323" alt="TINY ice bead reflection of Erik under maple leaf bud"></a>
Posted : 13/01/2013 7:15 pm
All I see is a nose, Erik 😆 😆
Jim...oh man, when YOUR guys start talking in Celcius, there's something wrong.
That CANNOT be your forecast!
The guys on the WX board are saying last week January brutal cold too.
What's the coldest your town has ever seen?
Barb
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/cgi-bin/banner/ban/wxBanner?bannertype=wu_bluestripes_both&airportcode=CWJV&ForcedCity=Vernon&ForcedState=Canada&wmo=71115&language=EN" alt="Find more about Weather in Vernon, CA" width="160" />
If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.
Posted : 13/01/2013 7:28 pm
Topic starter
I think it is -31F...the second year(winter) I started with the palms we saw -18F.
I remember being out there trying to reattach the plastic on the cactus shelter
and thinking it didn't feel that cold,then within a few minutes I realized my feet where
starting to become very hard/solid feeling!-LOL
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/big2_cond/language/www/US/IA/Fairfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 13/01/2013 9:20 pm
Ow, that is cold.
Our town many years ago was very close to that.
I remember our old beater of a truck wouldn't start after shopping downtown.
A very nice man came out of a retail shop with a jug full of hot tap water, poured it over the battery, and presto, it started.
within a few minutes I realized my feet were
starting to become very hard/solid feeling!
And you get pins-n-needles in feet when you climb into a hot bath to warm up. Weird feeling.
Erik, what a great photo by the way!
Incredible to have swollen buds in January...but that's Oklahoma!
Anyway, fingers crossed everybody gets through January unscathed.
Barb
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/cgi-bin/banner/ban/wxBanner?bannertype=wu_bluestripes_both&airportcode=CWJV&ForcedCity=Vernon&ForcedState=Canada&wmo=71115&language=EN" alt="Find more about Weather in Vernon, CA" width="160" />
If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.
Posted : 14/01/2013 12:57 am
We're watching that cold air mass down here.
The state weather/climate folks are guardedly optimistic for a glancing blow at worst:
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/forecast/map/eight_to_14_day_temperature_outlook/long_range
(forecast for January 22-28).
So far, above average temperatures for this winter. Still zone8b-sort of lows here (as was the case all last winter). 😀
Posted : 14/01/2013 5:25 pm
here's the comparison from last weeks forcast for the Jan 21-26 period vs. today's forcast of the same period.
Last week's forcast:
<img src= 
>
go figure.............the forcast got colder. 😡
<a href="http://www.wunderground.com/US/MA/Seekonk.html?bannertypeclick=bigwx"><img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/bigwx_both_cond/language/www/US/MA/Seekonk.gif" alt="Click for Seekonk, Massachusetts Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />
Posted : 20/01/2013 8:09 pm
Sorry. Looking good here--the worst is N & E of here, so lows in the 20s F tonight.
Posted : 20/01/2013 9:59 pm
😯
Our weather guys have the same difficulty getting things right.
Everything's protected now, right?
(...says to the "last minute man") :booty:
Barb
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/weathersticker/cgi-bin/banner/ban/wxBanner?bannertype=wu_bluestripes_both&airportcode=CWJV&ForcedCity=Vernon&ForcedState=Canada&wmo=71115&language=EN" alt="Find more about Weather in Vernon, CA" width="160" />
If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.
Posted : 21/01/2013 11:13 am
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