Weather peeps-check out this update for the storm in this ar – Page 2 – Weather & Climate – PalmsNorth.com

hardyjim · 2011-01-31T09:43:08Z

I live in Fairfield-(for reference). Long term... ..potentially near historic snow event over southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the forecast area on tap... Overview...key features are showing up which increases confidence on evolution of this winter storm system. Specifically...onshore data supports Nowcast tools of rapid occlusion to occur with parent surface low to slide NE...then north...then briefly northwest to near uin allowing for heavier precipitation to occur. Initialization and verification supports primary use of hi-res European model (ecmwf) with forcing inputs from GFS and 06z 80km NAM-WRF into day 3. Went with blend of European model (ecmwf) and GFS beyond day 4. Key comment...this system appears will phase and nearly perfectly with Canadian Alberta upper low...Arctic air...Gulf moisture and shear profiles for maximum intensity of snow and thunder-snow over at least southeast 1/3 of area. This is roughly like several small waves coming together to form a big wave...another description is constructive phasing or interference. If surface low occludes rapidly enough...this would support need to upgrade to blizzard watch due to isallobaric push to higher wind values of 5+ miles per hour. Occluding low will also be vital to how much thunder-snow will occur in forecast area. Tuesday and Wednesday...rapidly deepening and occluding surface low will slide to near stl at triple point with parent occluded low to near uin. This will result in snow...heavy at times with accumulation rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour over southeast 1/2 of area. Thunder-snow will be possible far south by 21z and slide to at least Highway 34 corridor through 09z. It may approach I-80 in Illinois. Northwest winds will increase to 25 to 35 miles per hour with some gusts to near 45 miles per hour resulting in nearly blizzard conditions. Went through several local calculations and came up just short of upgrading watch to a blizzard watch. Pass this concern to day shift as a primary issue. Again occluding surface low will be key. Snow amount gradients will be significant and went with middle of the Road values with most solutions quantitative precipitation forecast values suggesting poor entropy or energy dissipation issues. Heaviest snows should occur +/- 30 miles either side of a Quincy Illinois Peoria Illinois to near Kankakee line. Snow totals to range from 15 to 20 inches south of a Sterling to quadrant city to Fairfield line. North of this line to a Galena to Cedar Rapids to Marengo line 10 to 15 inches are expected. North of this line second line the gradient of snow will rapidly decrease to 5 to 10 inches with 5 to 7 inches with this storm suggested north of Highway 20 near Manchester and Independence. Final Point...snow values of over 20 inches are possible if surface occlusion is again significant enough and will pass this to day shift along favored aforementioned heaviest snow track. Will emphasize near blizzard conditions with potential thunder-snow in chiwswdvn...or next Winter Storm Watch product.

hardyjim

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The east winds gusting to 50mph(at least)caused an ominous
drift over the cactus G-house,these two teamed up to collapse
the back of the east side last night-luckily I walked home(during the storms peak)
and saw what happened,I had to turn off the space heater as I am sure the frame was resting on it.

When I came home this morning the rest of the east side was down,no choice but to leave it as it lays.

Temps in the single digits tomorrow and -12F tonight will mean a pretty high risk without heat.

I am sure the 15+"or so(hard to tell with what the wind did with the snow last night)
of snow will insulate it-better to leave it that remove and risk not getting it back up.

I just hope my big Yucca isn't crushed,I think it is though.

Whayagonnado?

Posted : 02/02/2011 12:12 pm

TerdalFarm

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Jim,
I am so sorry. --Erik

Posted : 02/02/2011 12:21 pm

lucky1

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You averted a disaster by turning the space heater off.
Maybe only a bit is crushed from the weight, might induce branching from that point.

I suppose it's impossible to get hot water jugs under there for tonight? 👿

Barb

If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

Posted : 02/02/2011 2:21 pm

Cameron_z6a_N.S.

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Jim, sorry to hear about your greenhouse. Erik, is it still snowing where you are, or is it finished?

We've received about a foot of snow here within the past 24 hours, and are supposed to receive another foot by tomorrow morning! 😡

Posted : 02/02/2011 3:01 pm

lucky1

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How are things looking today, Jim?

If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

Posted : 03/02/2011 11:33 am

hardyjim

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Still on the ground,I have considered leaving it there until the weather breaks
(in a few weeks hopefully(?).

I am not really posting to much about it -so i don't think about it to much.

It just occurred to me that if I can't restore it to some kind of shape
tomorrow that I will just brace it,cover with more snow and leave it until "spring".

I will take some pics today and try to post them tomorrow.

Posted : 03/02/2011 12:05 pm

lucky1

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Maybe cover with new plastic to ensure it's at least airtight?

Hopefully your cold blast will be short-lived.
I'm sure the stuff under there will be better than you expect; after all, they have some age now.

Barb

If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

Posted : 03/02/2011 12:17 pm

TerdalFarm

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Jim,
again, I'm sorry. I know how hard it can be to think about.
But, we'd still like photos when you can.
Barb,
I did something similar to what you suggest for Jim in putting plastic over the partially collapsed Sabal "Lou" shelter. I'll also put in several warm water bottles this evening. I can't do that for anything else as they are buried in snow drifts. --Erik

Posted : 03/02/2011 12:41 pm

lucky1

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Erik,
It's just insurance against gaps in the plastic that aren't easy to see.

If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

Posted : 03/02/2011 12:52 pm

TerdalFarm

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Yup.
I used facebook to share a photo with Bryan of Amazing Gardens and he thinks it will work.

Posted : 03/02/2011 12:55 pm

lucky1

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FB...I really try to figure out its appeal to people...
I'm not there yet. 😕

If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

Posted : 03/02/2011 3:08 pm

hardyjim

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Barb

I am mostly worried the big Yucca and some other stuff may be crushed-
the snow kept it from 28-38F last night/today -even though it was -5F last night.

Luckily the "big"Fortunei is under the part still up.

Posted : 03/02/2011 8:44 pm

TerdalFarm

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Jim,
glad about the Trachy. I like Yucca and all, but your Trachycarpus are really special. --Erik

Posted : 03/02/2011 10:34 pm

lucky1

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