Excellent link Tim.

This sentence hit me:

record-breaking global average temperature in the next two to three years because solar activity is on the upswing and the next El Niño will increase tropical Pacific temperatures

Somebody said last year that that creates colder ocean temps in the NorthPacific, scouring more cold out of Alaska (and Siberia) into BC...

So much for my wish to have zone 8 winters... 😕

Barb

But then there is this sentence 😀

""It's always dangerous to make predictions about El Niño, but it's safe to say we'll see one in the next three years," Hansen said. "It won't take a very strong El Niño to push temperatures above 2010."

that Joe Bastardi guy is predicting a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple months! Crazy stuff.....hard to believe with temps in our area so warm.

I'm still searching for UAH and RSS to see how 2011 ranked in their system. GISS typically records the warmest temps.

predicting a sharp drop in global temps

😯

If so, the guy's well named.
Barb

that Joe Bastardi guy is predicting a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple months! Crazy stuff.....hard to believe with temps in our area so warm.

I'm still searching for UAH and RSS to see how 2011 ranked in their system. GISS typically records the warmest temps.

That could jsut be relative to the abnormal highs. Like, if this tred continued, it would be 20C here in march... all march (not saying I wont welcome that 😀 ) The drop is probably a trend back to normal temps maybe?

Yea,we'll see what March/April are like...

Here's one of Joe Bastardi's 2012-2013 predictions.....not sure I believe.

http://youtu.be/zr1rAY9lEaI

He recorded that Sept 2010 and some would believe him that last winter was cold for the entire middle of the continent, north to south.
So his prediction was pretty good a year later.
Hope he's wrong for the rest of it into 2013 and 2014.

Damn...that's the second time I heard that the Pacific Ocean is cooling.

He recorded that Sept 2010 and some would believe him that last winter was cold for the entire middle of the continent, north to south.
So his prediction was pretty good a year later.
Hope he's wrong for the rest of it into 2013 and 2014.

Damn...that's the second time I heard that the Pacific Ocean is cooling.

Cold pecific, does not always mean cold/snow:

""We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting," said GISS director James E. Hansen. "So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Niña influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the 10 warmest years on record."

The difference between 2011 and the warmest year in the GISS record (2010) is 0.22°F (0.12°C). This underscores the emphasis scientists put on the long-term trend of global temperature rise. Because of the large natural variability of climate, scientists do not expect temperatures to rise consistently year after year. However, they do expect a continuing temperature rise over decades."

2011 was a la nina year, with cold pacific waters, and it was still toasty. Cold water is only a part of it. That hansen guy mentions solar activity, which is another major player.

That Hansen guy is a bit unusual for someone so high up in the chain. Google him and you'll find that he goes to GW protests and gets arrested. Not sure if I believe what he says........he seems too bias. His global temp #'s are the warmest of all agencies too. I like to look at UAH and RSS along with GISS. I still haven't found out what UAH and RSS rank 2011. I wonder if they say 2011 is in the top 10?

UAH has good data too:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

RSS has good data too:
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

vs. GISS:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

The nitty grittys can be argues of course, but all the numbers still show a warming trend to some degree. I dont think anyone is arguing that now (besides the ares that may be cooling at some season). The argument seems to be how long, fast and how warm in general it will be....

I agree. Ocean levels in the past got some 10 to 20 feet higher than current levels. I would bet we are headed there again.

Joe Bastardi did predict January's Global temp correct. It did drop like he predicted.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/02/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2012-0-09-deg-c/

a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple months!

and the current brutal cold in Europe will move...somewhere...gulp!

Climate shifting...maybe in future, March/April will be the new winter. 😯

Hi Barb,

I'm sure it will be 'pay back' time come spring......with below normal temps.